摘要：

国家发展改革委、国家能源局等九部门于2022年6月1日联合印发的《“十四五”可再生能源发展规划》描绘了我国可再生能源发展路线图，明确提出加快建设陆上新能源基地，重点建设海上风电基地集群。风力发电作为可再生能源发展的重要内容，综合考虑技术可行性、高经济竞争力和高减排贡献等因素，精准部署大规模风力发电场成为我国亟待解决的关键问题之一。由于我国风资源和经济发展的地区差异，中国风电的部署需要明确可能的选址和投资成本，因此，王克副教授团队基于GIS的方法和学习曲线相结合的方法，构建了高精度风电多潜力评估体系，测算了我国陆上风电和海上风电的装机量、发电量、度电成本、和减排贡献等，文章发表于Journal of Cleaner Production期刊。研究发现，我国有大面积的陆地和近海区域可用于风电场建设，尤其是西北部的荒漠、戈壁和东部近海区域。目前，我国陆上和海上风力发电的年发电量可高达8650.33 TWh和11298.9 TWh，在满足我国快速增长的电力需求方面具有巨大的应用潜力。76.06%的陆上风电和20.69%的海上风电的经济性较强，技术进步因素下成本竞争力还将继续提高，2030年陆上风电和海上风电成本将分别下降25-53%和21-46%。综合考虑风力资源、经济成本和减排贡献等因素，我国陆上风电最优建设区域主要位于内蒙古、甘肃和新疆等省份，海上风电的最优建设地区主要是福建省近海区域，为国家和地区风电开发提供切实可行的选址规划，2021至2030年间，风力发电部署将产生7823.73-10723.50 Gt的碳减排贡献。

Abstract：

China has ambitious renewable energy development plans after undergoing a rapid development phase for wind power. China's prospects for wind development affect the global decarbonization path. The question of where to deploy turbines of this magnitude to achieve technical feasibility, high economic competitiveness, and high emission reduction has become an urgent issue for China. Due to regional differences in wind resources and economic development, the deployment of wind power in China requires clarity on the likely siting and investment costs. It requires an accurate assessment of the exploitable possibilities of wind energy resources in China, which provides practical solutions for national and regional wind energy development. In this study, a multi-potential assessment was developed to estimate the feasibility and emission reduction contribution of wind power using a combined GIS-based approach and learning curves. It is found that there are large areas of land and ocean available for wind farms in China, especially the desert in the northwest and the coastal area of Fujian province. The technical potential of onshore and offshore wind power is 8650.33 TWh/yr and 11298.9 TWh/yr, respectively. Moreover, 76.06% and 20.69% of onshore and offshore wind, respectively, could be supplied economically. The optimal areas for building onshore wind by 2030 are located in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang, while the optimal construction area for offshore wind power is mainly the coastal area of Fujian. Wind energy has a large potential to meet China's electricity demand and is set to be more cost-competitive as time passes. The cost of onshore and offshore wind will decrease by 25–53% and 21–46%, respectively, by 2030. Wind development could contribute 7823.73–10723.50 Mt CO2 reduction during 2021–2030, which could help decarbonize China's energy system.

发表于Journal of Cleaner Production 2022, 376, 134287（最新影响因子为11.072）

文章链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652622038598